Has the yen carry trade ended, or is the structure of yen funding and outward capital flows changing? Using an information cutoff of 8 September 2026, this article examines the 2024 market disruption alongside Japanese and US monetary policy and Japan’s 2026 foreign-exchange intervention. It distinguishes borrowed carry, derivatives-based exposure, currency hedging and own-funded foreign investment, considering central banks, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, banks, non-bank intermediaries and long-horizon institutional investors.

The evidence includes central-bank decisions and outlooks; official intervention, external-asset and securities-flow statistics; BIS banking and foreign-exchange data and research; CFTC positioning reports; and international financial-stability policy documents. Verified facts, published source assessments and SG Group’s analytical judgments are kept distinct. Reference dates are separated from publication dates, turnover from outstanding positions, and gross from net amounts. The discussion compares conditional persistence, orderly attenuation, acute unwinding and structural retreat, examining collateral, maturity, refinancing and funding-currency substitution alongside interest-rate differentials.

The full analysis combines timelines, comparison tables, funding-and-collateral diagrams, a catalyst matrix, early-warning indicators, falsification criteria and a monitoring dashboard. It traces transmission from markets through credit provision to trade finance, working capital, investment and inflation, including conditions that can absorb shocks before they reach economic activity. Business-continuity questions for Japanese firms cover payments, collections, repricing and settlement. The focus is macroeconomic interpretation across institutions and time horizons, not exchange-rate forecasts or recommendations on individual financial transactions.